Key Takeaways
- Ethereum’s (ETH) price surged on May 8 and crossed $2,000.
- Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live on the mainnet on May 7.
- Has Ethereum started a bullish trend reversal, or is this a relief rally?
Ethereum has been one of the best performers in the crypto market his week, rallying by over 20%.
Ethereum’s upward movement accelerated after the Pectra upgrade went live on May 7. The ETH price has gained against USD and Bitcoin (BTC), reducing the latter’s dominance.
With market sentiment flipping bullish, let’s analyze the Ethereum price movement and determine if the price has started a bullish trend reversal.
Why is Ethereum Going Up?
Ethereum’s weekly time frame analysis shows the price has bounced 60% since its April lows of $1,383, finally crossing $2,000 this week.
After creating a bullish weekly candlestick, the price trades inside the $2,200 horizontal resistance area, a key level that provided support for more than a year.
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Until the price reclaims it, the ongoing increase might be a retest of the area as resistance after ETH broke down in March (red icon).
Technical indicators have not flipped bullish yet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has not made a bullish cross yet.

The indicators (black circles) are close to flipping their bullish levels, but need a price close above $2,200 to confirm the reversal.
So, despite the bounce, Ethereum’s long-term outlook is not yet bullish.
Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum’s long-term wave count gives a bearish price analysis. It suggests that ETH is in wave Y of a W-X-Y corrective structure (red) that started with the 2021 all-time high.
If the count is accurate, ETH will not reach a new all-time high this cycle. Instead, it will eventually break down below its previous bear market low, which has never happened before.

However, the count also suggests that ETH has started a minor relief rally (black), which is not yet over.
Therefore, it gives a bullish Ethereum price prediction in the short term.
Moving on to the short-term count: Ethereum’s price broke out from a descending parallel channel after completing a five-wave decline (red).

It is now likely nearing the top of wave A (green), after which a decline could happen.
Then, wave C could take the Ethereum price toward $2,700, marking the end of the relief rally.
ETH Outperforms BTC
The ETH to BTC bounce started after the price reached the ₿0.017 horizontal support area created by the 2019 lows (green icon).
While the bounce has been substantial, ETH has yet to break out from its descending resistance trend line.

The RSI and MACD did not generate bullish divergences, which would be a strong sign that the price has started a bullish trend reversal.
Despite its bounce, ETH is still 75% below its highs against Bitcoin and has a long way to go before it can confirm its bullish trend reversal.
Retracement Before New Highs
Ethereum’s rally since April has been impressive, causing ETH to regain some ground against BTC.
The short-term price analysis suggests the increase is not over, and the price will reach another high.
However, the long-term outlook remains bearish, with a new all-time high unlikely.
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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